How Economic and Demographic Trends Influence the International Tourism

This project explores how long-term global trends, including population aging, catch-up growth, migration, and environmental changes, are influencing international tourism patterns and shaping the tourism industry in Switzerland.

Long-run Economic and Demographic Influences on International Tourism

Project Description

Travel and tourism play a crucial economic role globally, but Switzerland has seen a decline in international tourism over recent decades. Once the 5th most visited country in 1950, it now ranks 35th. This project aims to investigate the long-term trends that may explain this shift, focusing on four key factors: catch-up economic growth in emerging markets, population aging, migration patterns, and environmental changes. For the first time, the project will analyze how catch-up growth and population aging specifically influence global travel behavior and Switzerland’s tourism sector.

As an application, the project will provide long-term projections of international travel to Switzerland, based on expected changes in these trends. By examining the impact of these global shifts, the research aims to offer insights that can help shape tourism policy and industry strategies in Switzerland, ensuring that the country can adapt to evolving patterns in international tourism.

The LORINT project is a research project aimed at investigating the long-term impact of future demographic, key macroeconomic, and selected environmental trends on international travel demand over time.

Some of the key objectives are:

Investigating whether population aging modifies the flows of international travel.
Examining the interactions and joint impacts of population aging, migration, catch-up growth, and environmental changes on international travel.
Develop a Macroeconometric simulation tool for long-term international travel demand.

Scientific Output

Davoine, T. (2024, June 25-28). Should international tourism fear population aging [Paper presentation]. 6th Wine & Hospitality Management Workshop, Alliance for Research on Wine and Hospitality Management, Reims, France

Davoine, T. (2024, July 24-26). Retirement age and international outbound tourism [paper presentation]. 2024 International Council on Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional Education (ICHRIE) Global Conference in Montreal, Canada

Start & End Date

01.01.2023 - 31.12.2024

Main Applicant

Davoine, T., EHL Hospitality Business School

External Funding

HES-SO

EHL Blog Insights

Switzerland Tourism Decline: Causes, Future Outlook and Strategic Solutions

The International Tourism in Switzerland Conference, hosted by EHL Hospitality Business School on November 22, 2024, addressed the significant decline in Switzerland's ranking as a tourist destination—from 5th in 1950 to 28th in 2022. The conference aimed to understand the reasons behind this change, explore future evolutions and develop strategies to influence this trend. Various tourism stakeholders, including policymakers, industry experts and academics, gathered to discuss the current state of international tourism in Switzerland. Facilitated by Dr. Thomas Davoine, an Assistant Professor of Economics at EHL, the discussions covered a wide range of topics, from tourism policies and digital transformation to the impact of COVID-19 on cities and sustainability initiatives.

Read Full Article

Download Report PDF

In The Media

Déclin du tourisme suisse: causes et enjeux - Allnews

Une conférence organisée par l'EHL Hospitality Business School a analysé la perte de vitesse marquée du tourisme en Suisse depuis 1950. La question majeure à laquelle les intervenants ont tenté de répondre était la suivante: pourquoi la Suisse est passé du cinquième rang, parmi les pays les plus visités, en 1950 au vingt-huitième rang en 2022? Les causes et conséquences de cette évolution ont fait l’objet d’un débat intéressant et enrichissant. L'événement, qui s’est tenu le 22 novembre 2024, s’inscrit dans le projet «Influences économiques et démographiques à long terme sur le tourisme international», qui est financé par la HES-SO. Il a été animé par le Dr Thomas Davoine, professeur assistant en économie à l'EHL.

Read Full Article

Simulation Tools

LORINT - Simulation User manual and illustration

Download here

“A Macroeconometric simulation tool for long-term international travel demand”

Read here

Our Team

Dr. Thomas Davoine

Assistant Professor

Dr Thomas Davoine is an Assistant Professor at EHL. During 8 years, Dr Davoine was a management consultant, successively at Eurogroup consulting (Paris, France), PricewaterhouseCoopers (Geneva) and KPMG (Geneva). Dr Davoine later performed applied economic research and policy consulting at the Institute for Advanced Studies (Vienna, Austria), for more than 8 years. Dr Davoine holds an Engineer diploma in Mathematics from the EPFL, a Master of Science degree in Operations Research from Rutgers University (New Jersey, USA) and a PhD in Economics from the University of St-Gallen. He teaches microeconomics and macroeconomics at EHL from September 2020.

Ronald Sone

Research Assistant
Ronald Sone is a Research Assistant at EHL Hospitality Business School. He holds a MSc in Business Administration from HES-SO and before joining EHL, he worked as a business data processing specialist. He also worked on a project (HEG-FR) that focused on how universities can enhance students’ entrepreneurial mindsets rather than counting the number of startups that they create. His areas of interest include Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Sustainability, Generative AI, Change Management and Hospitality.